Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 5?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 100¢ · $345 held · ends Nov 5

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

Total Value

$345.15

Combined PnL

$83.17

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 99.5¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$182.96

Total Shares327

Combined PnL+$64.91

Yes8 traders

Total Value$162.18

Total Shares163

Combined PnL+$18.26

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$70.15	$68.01	+$20.32	53% 23096-20320 (43416)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$49.93	$52.67	+$2.74	54% 10281-8887 (19168)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Noavg 69.3¢	$379.96	$41.39	+$11.79	41% 825-1210 (2035)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 82.8¢	$30.51	$33.25	+$2.73	41% 1223-1782 (3005)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 97¢	$29.42	$30.17	+$0.75	47% 1710-1898 (3608)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 82.1¢	$21.51	$26.06	+$4.55	42% 1221-1710 (2931)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 77.8¢	$18.39	$23.52	+$5.13	47% 2253-2525 (4778)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 96.8¢	$28.6	$21.7	+$4.77	39% 1099-1727 (2826)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 88¢	$29.74	$18.34	+$6.46	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Yesavg 99.8¢	$17.54	$17.48	-$0.05	—
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 96.5¢	$4.88	$5.03	+$0.15	41% 1152-1658 (2810)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 94.9¢	$4.75	$4.98	+$0.23	27% 6994-19119 (26113)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$43.48	$2.13	+$24.05	53% 3933-3494 (7427)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 0.2¢	$0.12	$0.3	+$0.18	53% 29736-26607 (56343)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 3.1¢	$0.74	$0.12	-$0.62	18% 4425-20750 (25175)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$70.15

Value

$68.01

PnL

+$20.32

Record

53%

23096-20320 (43416)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$49.93

Value

$52.67

PnL

+$2.74

Record

54%

10281-8887 (19168)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Invested

$379.96

Value

$41.39

PnL

+$11.79

Record

41%

825-1210 (2035)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.51

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$2.73

Record

41%

1223-1782 (3005)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.42

Value

$30.17

PnL

+$0.75

Record

47%

1710-1898 (3608)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.51

Value

$26.06

PnL

+$4.55

Record

42%

1221-1710 (2931)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.39

Value

$23.52

PnL

+$5.13

Record

47%

2253-2525 (4778)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.6

Value

$21.7

PnL

+$4.77

Record

39%

1099-1727 (2826)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$29.74

Value

$18.34

PnL

+$6.46

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.54

Value

$17.48

PnL

-$0.05

Record

—

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.88

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.15

Record

41%

1152-1658 (2810)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.23

Record

27%

6994-19119 (26113)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$43.48

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$24.05

Record

53%

3933-3494 (7427)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

29736-26607 (56343)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.62

Record

18%

4425-20750 (25175)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.