Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 4?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 50¢ · $366 held · ends Nov 4

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$365.76

Combined PnL

$98.07

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 50¢

-7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$355.87

Total Shares520

Combined PnL+$93.7

Yes3 traders

Total Value$9.64

Total Shares33

Combined PnL+$4.37

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 16.7¢	$44.3	$159.97	+$143.45	46% 10104-11804 (21908)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$99.25	$79.23	-$20.01	58% 2450-1791 (4241)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$48.46	$39.38	-$9.08	53% 9830-8561 (18391)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 83¢	$33.2	$27.2	-$6	54% 22113-19218 (41331)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$20.36	$15.33	-$5.03	79% 12015-3213 (15228)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$34.97	$10.08	-$4.92	58% 18891-13903 (32794)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 75¢	$201.4	$8.66	-$0.89	44% 775-972 (1747)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 15.4¢	$4.08	$7.66	+$3.58	47% 1608-1792 (3400)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$61.51	$6.8	-$1.63	60% 11527-7695 (19222)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 57¢	$6.19	$5.7	-$0.49	41% 1040-1524 (2564)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$11.82	$3.51	-$1.7	47% 2062-2341 (4403)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$0.65	$1.5	+$0.85	40% 2086-3131 (5217)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.15	$0.48	-$0.07	18% 4223-19901 (24124)

god83743894

Invested

$44.3

Value

$159.97

PnL

+$143.45

Record

46%

10104-11804 (21908)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$99.25

Value

$79.23

PnL

-$20.01

Record

58%

2450-1791 (4241)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$48.46

Value

$39.38

PnL

-$9.08

Record

53%

9830-8561 (18391)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$33.2

Value

$27.2

PnL

-$6

Record

54%

22113-19218 (41331)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$20.36

Value

$15.33

PnL

-$5.03

Record

79%

12015-3213 (15228)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$34.97

Value

$10.08

PnL

-$4.92

Record

58%

18891-13903 (32794)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$201.4

Value

$8.66

PnL

-$0.89

Record

44%

775-972 (1747)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$3.58

Record

47%

1608-1792 (3400)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$61.51

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$1.63

Record

60%

11527-7695 (19222)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.19

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$0.49

Record

41%

1040-1524 (2564)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.82

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$1.7

Record

47%

2062-2341 (4403)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.85

Record

40%

2086-3131 (5217)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.07

Record

18%

4223-19901 (24124)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.