Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 7?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 99¢ · $514 held · ends Nov 7

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$513.78

Combined PnL

$244.97

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 99.1¢

+54% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$489.84

Total Shares751

Combined PnL+$25.6

No5 traders

Total Value$23.94

Total Shares158

Combined PnL+$219.37

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 61.6¢	$329.09	$331.28	+$11.25	37% 891-1523 (2414)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 67¢	$86.76	$93.55	+$6.79	56% 777-601 (1378)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 85.3¢	$49.61	$54.87	+$5.26	54% 10711-9227 (19938)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$35.79	$16.98	-$18.82	53% 24313-21381 (45694)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 61.9¢	$7.85	$10.16	+$2.31	58% 21660-15754 (37414)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 0.6¢	$2.17	$6.33	+$227.17	39% 1294-2033 (3327)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 40.6¢	$0.55	$0.32	-$0.23	30% 488-1154 (1642)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 23.8¢	$11.9	$0.24	+$11.24	52% 31247-29161 (60408)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.31	$0.07	+$0.02	68% 13288-6311 (19599)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$329.09

Value

$331.28

PnL

+$11.25

Record

37%

891-1523 (2414)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$86.76

Value

$93.55

PnL

+$6.79

Record

56%

777-601 (1378)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.61

Value

$54.87

PnL

+$5.26

Record

54%

10711-9227 (19938)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$35.79

Value

$16.98

PnL

-$18.82

Record

53%

24313-21381 (45694)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.85

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$2.31

Record

58%

21660-15754 (37414)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.17

Value

$6.33

PnL

+$227.17

Record

39%

1294-2033 (3327)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.23

Record

30%

488-1154 (1642)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$11.24

Record

52%

31247-29161 (60408)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

68%

13288-6311 (19599)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.