Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 4?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (46%) · Yes at 68¢ · $568 held · ends Nov 4

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 46%

Total Value

$568.06

Combined PnL

$60.98

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 68¢

+26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$397.14

Total Shares612

Combined PnL+$49.45

No7 traders

Total Value$170.92

Total Shares443

Combined PnL+$11.52

Yes — 46%No — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 49.7¢	$191.07	$234.45	+$43.38	42% 779-1075 (1854)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 62.8¢	$81.65	$83.85	+$2.2	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 31.6¢	$66.85	$79.41	+$12.56	61% 15643-9934 (25577)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$41.83	$43.77	+$1.94	53% 9606-8430 (18036)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 38.9¢	$37.32	$34.58	-$0.73	47% 1602-1786 (3388)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 40.7¢	$27.63	$23.5	-$2.03	38% 947-1564 (2511)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 62.1¢	$25.15	$22.68	-$0.29	16% 427-2305 (2732)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 43.6¢	$26.16	$12.9	-$0.18	41% 6729-9567 (16296)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 39.3¢	$8.37	$9.16	+$0.79	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$12.82	$9.05	+$0.78	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$5.5	$6.22	+$0.71	48% 2103-2279 (4382)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$4.67	$6.17	+$1.5	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 17.9¢	$1.99	$2.32	+$0.34	40% 2066-3099 (5165)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$191.07

Value

$234.45

PnL

+$43.38

Record

42%

779-1075 (1854)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.65

Value

$83.85

PnL

+$2.2

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$66.85

Value

$79.41

PnL

+$12.56

Record

61%

15643-9934 (25577)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.83

Value

$43.77

PnL

+$1.94

Record

53%

9606-8430 (18036)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$37.32

Value

$34.58

PnL

-$0.73

Record

47%

1602-1786 (3388)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$27.63

Value

$23.5

PnL

-$2.03

Record

38%

947-1564 (2511)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.15

Value

$22.68

PnL

-$0.29

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$26.16

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$0.18

Record

41%

6729-9567 (16296)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$8.37

Value

$9.16

PnL

+$0.79

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$12.82

Value

$9.05

PnL

+$0.78

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$6.22

PnL

+$0.71

Record

48%

2103-2279 (4382)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.67

Value

$6.17

PnL

+$1.5

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$0.34

Record

40%

2066-3099 (5165)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.