Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 5?

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (31%) · Yes at 63¢ · $400 held · ends Nov 5

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 31%

Total Value

$399.76

Combined PnL

-$5.78

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 62.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$287.47

Total Shares506

Combined PnL-$6.31

No9 traders

Total Value$112.29

Total Shares255

Combined PnL+$0.53

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 59.5¢	$268.25	$252.47	-$15.78	44% 794-1005 (1799)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$26.54	$26.4	-$0.14	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$24.64	$24.13	-$0.51	32% 406-878 (1284)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$24.1	$23.98	-$0.12	55% 4405-3598 (8003)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 41.7¢	$59.17	$14.98	+$0.87	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 59.8¢	$13.95	$13.85	-$0.1	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$1.7	$11.4	+$9.7	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 56.7¢	$9.87	$9.75	-$0.13	54% 9970-8663 (18633)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$8.6	$8.8	+$0.2	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$12.96	$8.8	+$0.18	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$2.32	$2.2	-$0.12	50% 634-639 (1273)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$1.52	$1.59	+$0.07	40% 1032-1567 (2599)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$1.32	$1.42	+$0.1	39% 1048-1650 (2698)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$268.25

Value

$252.47

PnL

-$15.78

Record

44%

794-1005 (1799)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$26.54

Value

$26.4

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$24.64

Value

$24.13

PnL

-$0.51

Record

32%

406-878 (1284)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$24.1

Value

$23.98

PnL

-$0.12

Record

55%

4405-3598 (8003)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$59.17

Value

$14.98

PnL

+$0.87

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.95

Value

$13.85

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$9.7

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

9970-8663 (18633)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$12.96

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$0.18

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0.07

Record

40%

1032-1567 (2599)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.1

Record

39%

1048-1650 (2698)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.