Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 1?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 97¢ · $531 held · ended Nov 1

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$531.35

Combined PnL

$101.04

Smart Money Entry

42.3¢ → 97¢

+129% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$524.21

Total Shares570

Combined PnL+$94.81

No1 trader

Total Value$7.14

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$6.23

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 34.2¢	$148.18	$403.32	+$59.98	54% 467-391 (858)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 91.8¢	$98.19	$58.25	-$2.49	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 37.8¢	$14.58	$54.04	+$37.02	50% 1907-1873 (3780)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$8.3	$8.6	+$0.3	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 55.1¢	$0.91	$7.14	+$6.23	59% 1921-1351 (3272)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$148.18

Value

$403.32

PnL

+$59.98

Record

54%

467-391 (858)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.19

Value

$58.25

PnL

-$2.49

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.58

Value

$54.04

PnL

+$37.02

Record

50%

1907-1873 (3780)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$0.91

Value

$7.14

PnL

+$6.23

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.