Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 5?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 100¢ · $494 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$493.87

Combined PnL

$21.83

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$493.83

Total Shares497

Combined PnL+$22.02

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.02

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.19

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$239.76	$239.4	-$0.36	—
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$66.07	$72.45	+$6.39	54% 10291-8895 (19186)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$80.35	$70.55	+$7.91	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85¢	$32.14	$26.4	+$2.52	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$20.02	$21.43	+$1.4	47% 1713-1907 (3620)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$18.28	$19.98	+$1.7	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 78¢	$34.43	$17	-$0.08	14% 513-3102 (3615)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$12.15	$14.19	+$2.03	47% 2258-2536 (4794)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$6.1	$6.36	+$0.26	41% 1232-1796 (3028)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$5.82	$6.06	+$0.25	41% 2329-3363 (5692)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.21	$0.02	-$0.19	55% 4498-3708 (8206)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$239.76

Value

$239.4

PnL

-$0.36

Record

—

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$66.07

Value

$72.45

PnL

+$6.39

Record

54%

10291-8895 (19186)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$80.35

Value

$70.55

PnL

+$7.91

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$32.14

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$2.52

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$20.02

Value

$21.43

PnL

+$1.4

Record

47%

1713-1907 (3620)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.28

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$1.7

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$34.43

Value

$17

PnL

-$0.08

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.15

Value

$14.19

PnL

+$2.03

Record

47%

2258-2536 (4794)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.1

Value

$6.36

PnL

+$0.26

Record

41%

1232-1796 (3028)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.82

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.25

Record

41%

2329-3363 (5692)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.19

Record

55%

4498-3708 (8206)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.