Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 2?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 20¢ · $270 held · ends Nov 2

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$270.14

Combined PnL

$1.55

Smart Money Entry

17.5¢ → 20¢

+15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$232.91

Total Shares1,105

Combined PnL+$5.44

No1 trader

Total Value$37.23

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$3.89

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 19.4¢	$148.57	$153.21	+$4.64	50% 673-674 (1347)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$27.27	$59.5	-$2.28	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$77.18	$37.23	-$3.89	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$17.12	$20.2	+$3.08	50% 1907-1873 (3780)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$148.57

Value

$153.21

PnL

+$4.64

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.27

Value

$59.5

PnL

-$2.28

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$77.18

Value

$37.23

PnL

-$3.89

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.12

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$3.08

Record

50%

1907-1873 (3780)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.