Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 7?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 30¢ · $193 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$193.46
$20.83
25.9¢ → 29.5¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $154.46 | $175.21 | +$20.74 | 38% 858-1404 (2262) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 71.6¢ | $16.62 | $16.36 | -$0.26 | 58% 21302-15462 (36764) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $1.35 | $1.23 | -$0.13 | 17% 4502-22041 (26543) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $0.16 | $0.67 | +$0.47 | 72% 13906-5483 (19389) |
Invested
$154.46
Value
$175.21
PnL
+$20.74
Record
38%
858-1404 (2262)
Invested
$16.62
Value
$16.36
PnL
-$0.26
Record
58%
21302-15462 (36764)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$0.13
Record
17%
4502-22041 (26543)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.67
PnL
+$0.47
Record
72%
13906-5483 (19389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.