Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 30?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 52¢ · $385 held · ends Oct 30

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$384.86

Combined PnL

-$27.53

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 52¢

+15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$248.77

Total Shares614

Combined PnL-$29.59

No3 traders

Total Value$23.25

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$2.06

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 47¢	$201.63	$173.88	-$27.75	51% 602-578 (1180)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 53¢	$121.04	$112.83	-$4.32	23% 288-962 (1250)
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$59.8	$67.14	+$6.84
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.4¢	$56.86	$45.7	-$11.16
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 41.5¢	$76.73	$74.9	-$1.83	50% 1704-1692 (3396)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 48.3¢	$12.78	$12.66	-$0.12	60% 1670-1125 (2795)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$5.76	$7.62	+$1.86	0% 0-28 (28)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.97	+$0.32	57% 13342-10199 (23541)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$201.63

Value

$173.88

PnL

-$27.75

Record

51%

602-578 (1180)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$121.04

Value

$112.83

PnL

-$4.32

Record

23%

288-962 (1250)

Both legs:

No$59.853¢+$6.84

Yes$56.8650.4¢-$11.16

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.73

Value

$74.9

PnL

-$1.83

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$12.78

Value

$12.66

PnL

-$0.12

Record

60%

1670-1125 (2795)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$5.76

Value

$7.62

PnL

+$1.86

Record

0-28 (28)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.32

Record

57%

13342-10199 (23541)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.