Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 58¢ · $820 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$819.75
$254.26
49.5¢ → 58¢
+17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 44.3¢ | $288.11 | $461.58 | +$173.47 | 50% 647-636 (1283) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 52¢ | $170.2 | $199.95 | +$29.76 | 20% 312-1273 (1585) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 39.2¢ | $91.57 | $110.03 | +$18.46 | 59% 1805-1255 (3060) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 18.8¢ | $15.61 | $48.19 | +$32.57 | 53% 6540-5754 (12294) |
Invested
$288.11
Value
$461.58
PnL
+$173.47
Record
50%
647-636 (1283)
IstarothInvested
$170.2
Value
$199.95
PnL
+$29.76
Record
20%
312-1273 (1585)
Invested
$91.57
Value
$110.03
PnL
+$18.46
Record
59%
1805-1255 (3060)
Invested
$15.61
Value
$48.19
PnL
+$32.57
Record
53%
6540-5754 (12294)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.