Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on November 6?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $97 held · ended Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$97.12
-$73.99
16.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $130.82 | $48.44 | -$82.38 | 38% 866-1436 (2302) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $34.54 | $39.98 | +$5.44 | 53% 23817-20965 (44782) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Noavg 64.2¢ | $5.09 | $7.91 | +$2.82 | 59% 6784-4808 (11592) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $0.5 | $0.48 | -$0.02 | 26% 7359-21128 (28487) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $0.15 | $0.3 | +$0.15 | 53% 4113-3682 (7795) |
Invested
$130.82
Value
$48.44
PnL
-$82.38
Record
38%
866-1436 (2302)
Invested
$34.54
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$5.44
Record
53%
23817-20965 (44782)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$7.91
PnL
+$2.82
Record
59%
6784-4808 (11592)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$0.02
Record
26%
7359-21128 (28487)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.3
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
4113-3682 (7795)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.