Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on November 7?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 53¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 7

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$93.77

Combined PnL

$8.71

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$40.13

Total Shares79

Combined PnL+$3.67

No3 traders

Total Value$53.19

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$5.04

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 56.3¢	$39.11	$35.43	-$3.68	53% 4100-3666 (7766)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 47.3¢	$23.39	$26.22	+$2.83	52% 30969-28992 (59961)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$28.93	$16.05	+$1.59	46% 9418-11149 (20567)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 50¢	$10.29	$10.92	+$0.62	54% 12531-10868 (23399)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$32.25	$4.7	+$7.35	72% 13903-5480 (19383)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.11

Value

$35.43

PnL

-$3.68

Record

53%

4100-3666 (7766)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$23.39

Value

$26.22

PnL

+$2.83

Record

52%

30969-28992 (59961)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$28.93

Value

$16.05

PnL

+$1.59

Record

46%

9418-11149 (20567)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$10.29

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.62

Record

54%

12531-10868 (23399)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.25

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$7.35

Record

72%

13903-5480 (19383)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.