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NoNoNo
Istaroth<$100YesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on November 7?
Resolved Yes. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
No 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$20.04
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares97
Combined PnL-$7.09
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL-$12.95
No — 80%Yes — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $0.68 | — | -$4.78 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | No | — | — | +$0.06 | 47% 2105-2397 (4502) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $2.38 | — | -$2.38 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 69.1¢ | $49.89 | $0 | -$12.95 | 13% 603-4221 (4824) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
CI
cigarettesCTR<$100Invested
$0.68
Value
—
PnL
-$4.78
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
0X
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0.06
Record
47%
2105-2397 (4502)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
$2.38
Value
—
PnL
-$2.38
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$49.89
Value
$0
PnL
-$12.95
Record
13%
603-4221 (4824)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x5bad900d...6a7332
Slug
highest-temperature-in-istanbul-on-november-7-2026-11c