Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on November 5?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $90 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$89.62
$4.99
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $33.28 | $35.98 | +$2.7 | 53% 23194-20409 (43603) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $28.86 | $29.99 | +$1.13 | 46% 10400-12132 (22532) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $9.81 | $10.88 | +$1.07 | 54% 10311-8906 (19217) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $23.45 | $8.41 | +$0.68 | 58% 20305-14907 (35212) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $3.65 | $3.65 | +$0.29 | 43% 3225-4262 (7487) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.06 | $0 | -$0.88 | 31% 2683-6056 (8739) |
Invested
$33.28
Value
$35.98
PnL
+$2.7
Record
53%
23194-20409 (43603)
Invested
$28.86
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$1.13
Record
46%
10400-12132 (22532)
Invested
$9.81
Value
$10.88
PnL
+$1.07
Record
54%
10311-8906 (19217)
Invested
$23.45
Value
$8.41
PnL
+$0.68
Record
58%
20305-14907 (35212)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.65
PnL
+$0.29
Record
43%
3225-4262 (7487)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.88
Record
31%
2683-6056 (8739)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.