Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 5?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $358 held · ends Nov 5

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$358.01

Combined PnL

$55.66

Smart Money Entry

63.2¢ → 92¢

+46% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$358.01

Total Shares455

Combined PnL+$55.66

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 57.1¢	$114.12	$148	+$33.87	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$58.74	$63.62	+$4.88	54% 10126-8753 (18879)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 74¢	$66.78	$40.37	+$4.14	53% 8312-7406 (15718)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 73¢	$25.96	$26.31	+$0.35	39% 1067-1680 (2747)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$36.43	$23.68	+$4.88	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$13.08	$14.19	+$1.1	40% 1094-1616 (2710)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$15.6	$10.6	+$0.12	15% 498-2922 (3420)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$7.33	$9.47	+$2.15	50% 706-713 (1419)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 55¢	$5.5	$7.4	+$1.9	32% 2587-5457 (8044)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$27.04	$5.37	+$1.16	58% 19774-14525 (34299)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$4.26	$5.16	+$0.9	47% 1691-1873 (3564)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.63	$3.84	+$0.21	55% 4438-3636 (8074)

balthazar

Invested

$114.12

Value

$148

PnL

+$33.87

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$58.74

Value

$63.62

PnL

+$4.88

Record

54%

10126-8753 (18879)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$66.78

Value

$40.37

PnL

+$4.14

Record

53%

8312-7406 (15718)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$25.96

Value

$26.31

PnL

+$0.35

Record

39%

1067-1680 (2747)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$36.43

Value

$23.68

PnL

+$4.88

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$13.08

Value

$14.19

PnL

+$1.1

Record

40%

1094-1616 (2710)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$15.6

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$0.12

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$7.33

Value

$9.47

PnL

+$2.15

Record

50%

706-713 (1419)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$1.9

Record

32%

2587-5457 (8044)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$27.04

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$1.16

Record

58%

19774-14525 (34299)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.26

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0.9

Record

47%

1691-1873 (3564)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$0.21

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.