Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 6?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 41¢ · $260 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$260.1
$16.89
38¢ → 40.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR | Noavg 41.4¢ | $107.35 | $101.13 | -$6.21 | 53% 3954-3514 (7468) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $54.65 | $86.89 | +$32.24 | 61% 16045-10362 (26407) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 46.2¢ | $46.24 | $41 | -$5.24 | 42% 7151-9999 (17150) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $26.4 | $24.05 | -$2.35 | 53% 29797-26632 (56429) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.8¢ | $9.02 | $4.75 | -$1.07 | 58% 20305-14907 (35212) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $2.76 | $2.27 | -$0.49 | 42% 1234-1717 (2951) |
Invested
$107.35
Value
$101.13
PnL
-$6.21
Record
53%
3954-3514 (7468)
Invested
$54.65
Value
$86.89
PnL
+$32.24
Record
61%
16045-10362 (26407)
Invested
$46.24
Value
$41
PnL
-$5.24
Record
42%
7151-9999 (17150)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$26.4
Value
$24.05
PnL
-$2.35
Record
53%
29797-26632 (56429)
Invested
$9.02
Value
$4.75
PnL
-$1.07
Record
58%
20305-14907 (35212)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$2.27
PnL
-$0.49
Record
42%
1234-1717 (2951)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.