Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 2?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 90¢ · $183 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$183.3
$19.99
81.7¢ → 90¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $143.68 | $152.62 | +$8.94 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 62.4¢ | $28.51 | $24.56 | +$10.87 | 56% 14224-11027 (25251) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $5.25 | $5.63 | +$0.38 | 53% 6687-5886 (12573) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $0.7 | $0.5 | -$0.2 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
Invested
$143.68
Value
$152.62
PnL
+$8.94
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$28.51
Value
$24.56
PnL
+$10.87
Record
56%
14224-11027 (25251)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$5.63
PnL
+$0.38
Record
53%
6687-5886 (12573)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.