Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 8?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 72¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$103.26
-$7.5
76.4¢ → 71.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 76.2¢ | $56.13 | $49.36 | -$6.77 | 38% 887-1421 (2308) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $24.49 | $22.77 | -$1.73 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $13.87 | $13.58 | -$0.29 | 38% 7384-11865 (19249) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $12 | $13.4 | +$1.4 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $4.28 | $4.15 | -$0.13 | 42% 2420-3373 (5793) |
Invested
$56.13
Value
$49.36
PnL
-$6.77
Record
38%
887-1421 (2308)
Invested
$24.49
Value
$22.77
PnL
-$1.73
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
Invested
$13.87
Value
$13.58
PnL
-$0.29
Record
38%
7384-11865 (19249)
Invested
$12
Value
$13.4
PnL
+$1.4
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Invested
$4.28
Value
$4.15
PnL
-$0.13
Record
42%
2420-3373 (5793)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.