Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 7?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 98¢ · $133 held · ended Nov 7

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$133.17

Combined PnL

$34.72

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$123.5

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$25.92

No5 traders

Total Value$9.67

Total Shares569

Combined PnL+$8.8

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 66.8¢	$48.22	$59.76	+$11.54	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 68.3¢	$18.32	$24.38	+$6.06	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 73.8¢	$19.23	$19.79	+$1.66	13% 589-3866 (4455)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 73.3¢	$14.04	$13.8	+$2.99	53% 8691-7793 (16484)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 17.8¢	$2.11	$5.77	+$3.66	70% 14146-6050 (20196)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 3.8¢	$14.49	$4.19	+$88.19	53% 4566-4056 (8622)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Noavg 26.9¢	$72.87	$2.58	-$26.31	38% 887-1421 (2308)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$55.95	$2.12	-$53.83	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 23.9¢	$8.55	$0.61	+$2.69	53% 4144-3712 (7856)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$2.1	$0.17	-$1.93	26% 7407-21213 (28620)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.22

Value

$59.76

PnL

+$11.54

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.32

Value

$24.38

PnL

+$6.06

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.23

Value

$19.79

PnL

+$1.66

Record

13%

589-3866 (4455)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.04

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$2.99

Record

53%

8691-7793 (16484)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.11

Value

$5.77

PnL

+$3.66

Record

70%

14146-6050 (20196)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$14.49

Value

$4.19

PnL

+$88.19

Record

53%

4566-4056 (8622)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Invested

$72.87

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$26.31

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$55.95

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$53.83

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$8.55

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$2.69

Record

53%

4144-3712 (7856)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$1.93

Record

26%

7407-21213 (28620)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.