Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 5?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$147.52

Combined PnL

-$0.58

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.2¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$147.15

Total Shares147

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.37

Total Shares148

Combined PnL-$0.6

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$79.85	$79.92	-$0.04	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$82.76	$39.96	+$0.05	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.02	$9.02	-$0	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$8.06	$8.07	+$0.01	47% 1688-1871 (3559)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.14	$5.13	-$0	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.04	$5.04	+$0	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.46	$0.24	-$0.21	44% 6474-8170 (14644)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.06	+$0.01	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.06	$0.06	+$0	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$0.42	$0.02	-$0.4	32% 2511-5383 (7894)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.85

Value

$79.92

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$82.76

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.05

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.02

Value

$9.02

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.06

Value

$8.07

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.14

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.21

Record

44%

6474-8170 (14644)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0.01

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.4

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.