Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on November 6?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $208 held · ended Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$207.73
$20.46
73.6¢ → 100¢
+36% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-32 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 75.4¢ | $200.97 | $145.65 | -$16.3 | 13% 549-3630 (4179) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 67.3¢ | $55.73 | $42.82 | +$9.48 | 58% 21381-15510 (36891) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.9¢ | $9.61 | $14.58 | +$4.97 | 57% 735-562 (1297) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $352.02 | $4.67 | +$22.31 | 40% 853-1286 (2139) |
IstarothInvested
$200.97
Value
$145.65
PnL
-$16.3
Record
13%
549-3630 (4179)
Invested
$55.73
Value
$42.82
PnL
+$9.48
Record
58%
21381-15510 (36891)
Invested
$9.61
Value
$14.58
PnL
+$4.97
Record
57%
735-562 (1297)
Invested
$352.02
Value
$4.67
PnL
+$22.31
Record
40%
853-1286 (2139)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.