Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on November 3?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $174 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$173.78
-$0.08
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $72.93 | $72.83 | -$0.11 | 36% 635-1125 (1760) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.94 | +$0 | 53% 8926-7971 (16897) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.97 | +$0.03 | 50% 7813-7864 (15677) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $11.04 | $11.04 | +$0 | 41% 943-1365 (2308) |
Invested
$72.93
Value
$72.83
PnL
-$0.11
Record
36%
635-1125 (1760)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
8926-7971 (16897)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
7813-7864 (15677)
Invested
$11.04
Value
$11.04
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
943-1365 (2308)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.