Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on November 7?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $243 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$242.85
$229.46
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493 | Noavg 2¢ | $5.23 | $162.69 | +$228.6 | 53% 4562-4051 (8613) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $49.22 | $49.45 | +$0.23 | 53% 24327-21391 (45718) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $22.16 | $22.69 | +$0.52 | 58% 21678-15777 (37455) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $7.89 | $7.99 | +$0.11 | 42% 2418-3359 (5777) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $143.12 | $0.03 | +$0 | 70% 14127-6031 (20158) |
Invested
$5.23
Value
$162.69
PnL
+$228.6
Record
53%
4562-4051 (8613)
Invested
$49.22
Value
$49.45
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
24327-21391 (45718)
Invested
$22.16
Value
$22.69
PnL
+$0.52
Record
58%
21678-15777 (37455)
Invested
$7.89
Value
$7.99
PnL
+$0.11
Record
42%
2418-3359 (5777)
LucerysCTRInvested
$143.12
Value
$0.03
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
14127-6031 (20158)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.