Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 3?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $146 held · ends Nov 3

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$146.37

Combined PnL

$6.11

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 84.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$138.81

Total Shares145

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.56

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$6.06

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 84¢	$103.76	$100	-$2.21	18% 366-1654 (2020)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$24.56	$22.41	+$1.86	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 80¢	$16	$16.4	+$0.4	61% 21355-13647 (35002)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$5.94	$5.94	+$5.94	36% 16083-28096 (44179)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.9	+$0.05	47% 703-785 (1488)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$0.65	$0.73	+$0.07	50% 1916-1879 (3795)

Istaroth

Invested

$103.76

Value

$100

PnL

-$2.21

Record

18%

366-1654 (2020)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.56

Value

$22.41

PnL

+$1.86

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$16.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

61%

21355-13647 (35002)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$5.94

Record

36%

16083-28096 (44179)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

703-785 (1488)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.73

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

1916-1879 (3795)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.