Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on November 5?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $141 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$141.36
$2.7
99.6¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $79.85 | $79.84 | -$0.04 | 53% 22496-19712 (42208) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $82.22 | $39.92 | +$0.27 | 59% 11786-8040 (19826) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $13.17 | $13.17 | -$0.01 | 39% 1048-1650 (2698) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $5.13 | $5.13 | -$0 | 40% 1032-1567 (2599) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.46 | $1.71 | +$2.51 | 44% 6442-8142 (14584) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.21 | $1.21 | +$0 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $0.42 | $0.39 | -$0.03 | 32% 2469-5347 (7816) |
Invested
$79.85
Value
$79.84
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
22496-19712 (42208)
Invested
$82.22
Value
$39.92
PnL
+$0.27
Record
59%
11786-8040 (19826)
Invested
$13.17
Value
$13.17
PnL
-$0.01
Record
39%
1048-1650 (2698)
Invested
$5.13
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$0
Record
40%
1032-1567 (2599)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$1.71
PnL
+$2.51
Record
44%
6442-8142 (14584)
Invested
$1.21
Value
$1.21
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$0.03
Record
32%
2469-5347 (7816)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.