Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on November 4?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $151 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$151.4

Combined PnL

$46.46

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 99.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$151.35

Total Shares152

Combined PnL+$48.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.05

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$1.7

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$61.16	$61.21	+$0.05	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$54.87	$39.77	+$0.05	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$24.22	$24.22	-$0	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 16.5¢	$10.26	$11.2	+$48.04	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$22.59	$9.98	-$0.01	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.99	+$0.04	50% 634-639 (1273)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$1.74	$0.04	-$1.7	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	58% 19424-14279 (33703)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$61.16

Value

$61.21

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$54.87

Value

$39.77

PnL

+$0.05

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$24.22

Value

$24.22

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.26

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$48.04

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$22.59

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.74

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.7

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.