Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 7?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 100¢ · $601 held · ended Nov 7

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$600.73

Combined PnL

$79.16

Smart Money Entry

34.2¢ → 99.8¢

+192% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$600.37

Total Shares602

Combined PnL+$161.99

No5 traders

Total Value$0.36

Total Shares180

Combined PnL-$82.83

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 35.6¢	$469.47	$541.73	+$114.25	37% 903-1557 (2460)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$29.25	$35.85	+$26.6	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$27.96	$22.79	+$21.14	28% 3038-7860 (10898)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 68.1¢	$37.19	$0.11	-$36.48	56% 781-606 (1387)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$3.53	$0.09	-$3.44	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$32.82	$0.09	-$29.68	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$12.97	$0.05	-$12.93	61% 687-436 (1123)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$0.32	$0.02	-$0.3	26% 7407-21213 (28620)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$469.47

Value

$541.73

PnL

+$114.25

Record

37%

903-1557 (2460)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.25

Value

$35.85

PnL

+$26.6

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.96

Value

$22.79

PnL

+$21.14

Record

28%

3038-7860 (10898)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$37.19

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$36.48

Record

56%

781-606 (1387)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$3.53

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$3.44

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$32.82

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$29.68

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Invested

$12.97

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$12.93

Record

61%

687-436 (1123)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.3

Record

26%

7407-21213 (28620)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.