Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 4?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 0.8¢ · $235 held · ends Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$235.15

Combined PnL

-$325.17

Smart Money Entry

41.5¢ → 0.8¢

-98% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$183.55

Total Shares198

Combined PnL+$109.46

No11 traders

Total Value$51.61

Total Shares1,194

Combined PnL-$434.63

Yes — 21%No — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 31.2¢	$98.6	$135.24	+$91.64	58% 2456-1793 (4249)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$24.71	$44.26	+$19.55	53% 9849-8576 (18425)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Noavg 72¢	$429.12	$35.78	-$393.34	44% 777-973 (1750)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$42.76	$4.27	-$5.67	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 98.9¢	$5.78	$4.05	-$1.74	47% 2092-2375 (4467)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 4.5¢	$16.67	$2.76	-$13.9	60% 11636-7873 (19509)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 22.7¢	$9.65	$2.55	-$7.09	39% 1012-1603 (2615)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$6.09	$2.04	-$4.05	47% 1638-1811 (3449)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 17.6¢	$3.86	$1.32	-$2.55	39% 1023-1615 (2638)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 19.7¢	$4.12	$1.25	-$2.87	55% 4365-3560 (7925)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 11.4¢	$1.39	$0.73	-$0.66	39% 1000-1544 (2544)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$1.57	$0.43	-$1.14	41% 1145-1641 (2786)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 4.9¢	$2.52	$0.39	-$2.13	53% 28943-25862 (54805)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 11.1¢	$1.31	$0.09	-$1.22	40% 2112-3153 (5265)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$98.6

Value

$135.24

PnL

+$91.64

Record

58%

2456-1793 (4249)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.71

Value

$44.26

PnL

+$19.55

Record

53%

9849-8576 (18425)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Invested

$429.12

Value

$35.78

PnL

-$393.34

Record

44%

777-973 (1750)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$42.76

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$5.67

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.78

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$1.74

Record

47%

2092-2375 (4467)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$16.67

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$13.9

Record

60%

11636-7873 (19509)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$9.65

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$7.09

Record

39%

1012-1603 (2615)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$4.05

Record

47%

1638-1811 (3449)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$3.86

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$2.55

Record

39%

1023-1615 (2638)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$4.12

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$2.87

Record

55%

4365-3560 (7925)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$1.39

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.66

Record

39%

1000-1544 (2544)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.57

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$1.14

Record

41%

1145-1641 (2786)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$2.13

Record

53%

28943-25862 (54805)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.31

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.22

Record

40%

2112-3153 (5265)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5346.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

5446.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.