Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 5?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $703 held · ends Nov 5

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$702.87

Combined PnL

$72.64

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 83¢

+13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$597.24

Total Shares748

Combined PnL+$48.06

Yes2 traders

Total Value$105.27

Total Shares310

Combined PnL+$24.57

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 74¢	$432.77	$479.43	+$46.67	41% 799-1129 (1928)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$78	$102	+$24	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$44.17	$47.4	+$3.24	48% 2166-2364 (4530)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 70¢	$38.35	$36.44	-$1.91	56% 631-505 (1136)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$10.14	$10.12	-$0.02	47% 1688-1871 (3559)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 68.9¢	$12.48	$10.05	-$0.28	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 67¢	$6.97	$6.97	-$0	54% 10027-8667 (18694)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$3.48	$3.48	-$0.01	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$19.35	$3.35	+$0.37	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$2.69	$3.27	+$0.58	58% 19455-14308 (33763)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$432.77

Value

$479.43

PnL

+$46.67

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$78

Value

$102

PnL

+$24

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$44.17

Value

$47.4

PnL

+$3.24

Record

48%

2166-2364 (4530)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$38.35

Value

$36.44

PnL

-$1.91

Record

56%

631-505 (1136)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.14

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$12.48

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$0.28

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.97

Value

$6.97

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.48

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$0.01

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$19.35

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.37

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.69

Value

$3.27

PnL

+$0.58

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.