Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 7?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 67¢ · $881 held · ends Nov 7

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$880.54

Combined PnL

$332.19

Smart Money Entry

35¢ → 67¢

+92% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$834.04

Total Shares1,090

Combined PnL+$301.9

No2 traders

Total Value$46.51

Total Shares127

Combined PnL+$30.29

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 26.2¢	$291.41	$579.75	+$288.35	37% 877-1479 (2356)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 62.3¢	$61.4	$70.07	+$8.67	54% 10692-9211 (19903)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Yesavg 39.6¢	$39.6	$65	+$5.9	62% 672-410 (1082)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 9.9¢	$12.19	$38.29	+$35.32	36% 1163-2110 (3273)
Istaroth	Yesavg 60.8¢	$341.19	$36.58	-$14.65	13% 560-3692 (4252)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 63.7¢	$25.26	$25.79	+$0.53	56% 748-580 (1328)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 65.1¢	$23.37	$23.35	-$0.02	53% 23878-20983 (44861)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$18.87	$23.32	+$4.45	59% 6798-4818 (11616)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.6¢	$50.18	$10.18	+$8.67	71% 14022-5771 (19793)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 59.9¢	$16.44	$8.21	-$5.03	58% 21477-15583 (37060)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$291.41

Value

$579.75

PnL

+$288.35

Record

37%

877-1479 (2356)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.4

Value

$70.07

PnL

+$8.67

Record

54%

10692-9211 (19903)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.6

Value

$65

PnL

+$5.9

Record

62%

672-410 (1082)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$12.19

Value

$38.29

PnL

+$35.32

Record

36%

1163-2110 (3273)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$341.19

Value

$36.58

PnL

-$14.65

Record

13%

560-3692 (4252)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.26

Value

$25.79

PnL

+$0.53

Record

56%

748-580 (1328)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.37

Value

$23.35

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

23878-20983 (44861)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.87

Value

$23.32

PnL

+$4.45

Record

59%

6798-4818 (11616)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.18

Value

$10.18

PnL

+$8.67

Record

71%

14022-5771 (19793)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$16.44

Value

$8.21

PnL

-$5.03

Record

58%

21477-15583 (37060)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.