Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 5?

5 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (28%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $959 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 28%

Total Value

$958.84

Combined PnL

$364.99

Smart Money Entry

27¢ → 0.9¢

-97% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 18 top traders (28%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$282.94

Total Shares504

Combined PnL+$149.22

No13 traders

Total Value$675.9

Total Shares685

Combined PnL+$215.77

Yes — 28%No — 72%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$878.5	$282.27	+$150.62	40% 827-1216 (2043)
balthazar	Noavg 77.8¢	$112.79	$123.72	+$32.03	53% 29752-26614 (56366)
Lucerys	Noavg 85.1¢	$127.29	$102.89	+$37.7	75% 13065-4252 (17317)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 32.1¢	$61.63	$102.23	+$125.33	41% 1160-1663 (2823)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$70.16	$59.75	-$10.41	47% 1713-1907 (3620)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$50.82	$56.86	+$10.72	39% 1105-1735 (2840)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$61.67	$55.16	-$1.82	41% 1232-1796 (3028)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$48.99	$37.41	+$5.46	58% 12052-8655 (20707)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$30.49	$30.66	+$0.17	31% 2678-6002 (8680)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$27.35	$26.99	-$0.36	42% 1223-1712 (2935)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 87.6¢	$32.5	$25.93	+$3.02	55% 4498-3708 (8206)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$29.48	$22.33	+$7.74	41% 2329-3363 (5692)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$19.1	$20.66	+$7.08	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$12.2	$11.32	-$0.88	47% 2258-2536 (4794)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$10.18	$0.24	+$0.16	53% 8428-7501 (15929)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$10.45	$0.18	+$5.99	56% 669-527 (1196)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.8¢	$1.36	$0.14	-$1.22	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 44.2¢	$6.42	$0.1	-$6.32	54% 10291-8895 (19186)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$878.5

Value

$282.27

PnL

+$150.62

Record

40%

827-1216 (2043)

balthazar

Invested

$112.79

Value

$123.72

PnL

+$32.03

Record

53%

29752-26614 (56366)

Lucerys

Invested

$127.29

Value

$102.89

PnL

+$37.7

Record

75%

13065-4252 (17317)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$61.63

Value

$102.23

PnL

+$125.33

Record

41%

1160-1663 (2823)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$70.16

Value

$59.75

PnL

-$10.41

Record

47%

1713-1907 (3620)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$50.82

Value

$56.86

PnL

+$10.72

Record

39%

1105-1735 (2840)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$61.67

Value

$55.16

PnL

-$1.82

Record

41%

1232-1796 (3028)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$48.99

Value

$37.41

PnL

+$5.46

Record

58%

12052-8655 (20707)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$30.49

Value

$30.66

PnL

+$0.17

Record

31%

2678-6002 (8680)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$27.35

Value

$26.99

PnL

-$0.36

Record

42%

1223-1712 (2935)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$32.5

Value

$25.93

PnL

+$3.02

Record

55%

4498-3708 (8206)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$29.48

Value

$22.33

PnL

+$7.74

Record

41%

2329-3363 (5692)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$19.1

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$7.08

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

$11.32

PnL

-$0.88

Record

47%

2258-2536 (4794)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.18

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

8428-7501 (15929)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.45

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$5.99

Record

56%

669-527 (1196)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$1.22

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.42

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$6.32

Record

54%

10291-8895 (19186)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 18 top traders (28%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5052.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5152.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.