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YesYes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 1?
Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$22.17
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares336
Combined PnL-$22.17
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 33%No — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $17.8 | — | -$18.55 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $3.63 | — | -$3.63 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21345-13642 (34987) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$17.8
Value
—
PnL
-$18.55
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
RO
rocky42019CTR<$100Invested
$3.63
Value
—
PnL
-$3.63
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21345-13642 (34987)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x98640089...ce5d5e
Slug
highest-temperature-in-chongqing-on-november-1-2026-19c