Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 3?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 65¢ · $186 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$185.71
-$8.67
58.7¢ → 65¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $51.21 | $48.61 | -$2.6 | 30% 367-838 (1205) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $43.5 | $42 | -$1.5 | 50% 7792-7738 (15530) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $33.29 | $31.6 | -$1.69 | 39% 448-709 (1157) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 58.7¢ | $33.09 | $31.59 | -$1.5 | 28% 212-552 (764) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $32.78 | $31.11 | -$1.67 | 44% 3596-4660 (8256) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $0.51 | $0.8 | +$0.29 | 50% 727-724 (1451) |
Invested
$51.21
Value
$48.61
PnL
-$2.6
Record
30%
367-838 (1205)
Invested
$43.5
Value
$42
PnL
-$1.5
Record
50%
7792-7738 (15530)
Invested
$33.29
Value
$31.6
PnL
-$1.69
Record
39%
448-709 (1157)
Invested
$33.09
Value
$31.59
PnL
-$1.5
Record
28%
212-552 (764)
Invested
$32.78
Value
$31.11
PnL
-$1.67
Record
44%
3596-4660 (8256)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.8
PnL
+$0.29
Record
50%
727-724 (1451)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.