Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 2?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 0.7¢ · $108 held · ends Nov 2

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$108.03

Combined PnL

-$93.25

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 0.7¢

-99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$108.03

Total Shares617

Combined PnL-$93.25

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 69.9¢	$145.32	$89.66	-$55.66	61% 2332-1521 (3853)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 33.7¢	$5.79	$7.22	+$1.43	42% 938-1305 (2243)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 83¢	$9.08	$4.59	-$4.48	35% 698-1270 (1968)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$13.73	$3.19	-$10.53	35% 554-1008 (1562)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$8.53	$2.02	-$6.51	38% 751-1204 (1955)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 9.2¢	$5.33	$0.75	-$4.58	38% 1387-2298 (3685)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 24.7¢	$4.51	$0.24	-$4.27	45% 1527-1832 (3359)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$2.39	$0.18	-$2.21	38% 680-1090 (1770)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 27.8¢	$6.61	$0.17	-$6.44	57% 17226-12892 (30118)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$145.32

Value

$89.66

PnL

-$55.66

Record

61%

2332-1521 (3853)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$5.79

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$1.43

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$9.08

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$4.48

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$13.73

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$10.53

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$8.53

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$6.51

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$5.33

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$4.58

Record

38%

1387-2298 (3685)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$4.51

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$4.27

Record

45%

1527-1832 (3359)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$2.21

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$6.61

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$6.44

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5506.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

5606.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.