Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 1?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 54¢ · $863 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$863.06
$55.42
43.7¢ → 54¢
+24% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $383.11 | $360.62 | -$7.84 | 20% 312-1273 (1585) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56¢ | $203.89 | $189.42 | -$15.95 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44.8¢ | $163.13 | $171.2 | +$8.11 | |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 42.7¢ | $296.72 | $333.6 | +$54.25 | 47% 665-744 (1409) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 52.4¢ | $90.63 | $87.92 | -$2.71 | 59% 1805-1255 (3060) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.4¢ | $51.36 | $50.96 | -$0.4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51¢ | $39.27 | $36.96 | -$2.31 | |
RO rocky42019 | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $101.43 | $74.04 | +$1.21 | 42% 1717-2340 (4057) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $5.39 | $5.44 | +$0.05 | 50% 1825-1804 (3629) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $1.53 | $1.44 | -$0.09 | 53% 6540-5754 (12294) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$383.11
Value
$360.62
PnL
-$7.84
Record
20%
312-1273 (1585)
Both legs:
Invested
$296.72
Value
$333.6
PnL
+$54.25
Record
47%
665-744 (1409)
Invested
$90.63
Value
$87.92
PnL
-$2.71
Record
59%
1805-1255 (3060)
Both legs:
Invested
$101.43
Value
$74.04
PnL
+$1.21
Record
42%
1717-2340 (4057)
Invested
$5.39
Value
$5.44
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
1825-1804 (3629)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.44
PnL
-$0.09
Record
53%
6540-5754 (12294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.