Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 30?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 94¢ · $522 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$522.47
$99.89
68.9¢ → 93.5¢
+36% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $128.57 | $219.27 | +$90.7 | 51% 623-608 (1231) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 68.5¢ | $142.73 | $143.84 | -$8.28 | 56% 357-286 (643) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $99.34 | $105.15 | +$5.81 | 59% 1714-1183 (2897) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $26.99 | $26.28 | -$0.05 | 21% 295-1086 (1381) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $14.77 | $25.44 | +$10.67 | 53% 6459-5657 (12116) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $1.46 | $2.5 | +$1.04 | 57% 13509-10335 (23844) |
Invested
$128.57
Value
$219.27
PnL
+$90.7
Record
51%
623-608 (1231)
Invested
$142.73
Value
$143.84
PnL
-$8.28
Record
56%
357-286 (643)
Invested
$99.34
Value
$105.15
PnL
+$5.81
Record
59%
1714-1183 (2897)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$26.99
Value
$26.28
PnL
-$0.05
Record
21%
295-1086 (1381)
Invested
$14.77
Value
$25.44
PnL
+$10.67
Record
53%
6459-5657 (12116)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1.04
Record
57%
13509-10335 (23844)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.