Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 31?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 46¢ · $456 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$456.19
$1.06
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Yesavg 36.7¢ | $357.1 | $424.09 | +$76.78 | 47% 656-735 (1391) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.7¢ | $239.3 | $300.3 | +$70.79 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.4¢ | $117.8 | $123.79 | +$5.99 | |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.6¢ | $22.32 | $23.36 | +$1.03 | 59% 1779-1231 (3010) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $9.42 | $8.74 | +$0.03 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
Invested
$357.1
Value
$424.09
PnL
+$76.78
Record
47%
656-735 (1391)
Both legs:
Invested
$22.32
Value
$23.36
PnL
+$1.03
Record
59%
1779-1231 (3010)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$9.42
Value
$8.74
PnL
+$0.03
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.