Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on November 2?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $663 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$663.03
$78.06
80.1¢ → 99.7¢
+25% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $220 | $281.3 | +$36.65 | 61% 2345-1531 (3876) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 83.5¢ | $161.84 | $187.99 | +$10.64 | 55% 556-450 (1006) |
BI Bilberry | Noavg 77¢ | $94.7 | $122.31 | +$27.61 | 54% 3380-2917 (6297) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $59.53 | $61.88 | +$2.35 | 35% 704-1298 (2002) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $8.63 | $9.41 | +$0.78 | 37% 1392-2373 (3765) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.11 | $0.14 | +$0.04 | 46% 1568-1827 (3395) |
Invested
$220
Value
$281.3
PnL
+$36.65
Record
61%
2345-1531 (3876)
Invested
$161.84
Value
$187.99
PnL
+$10.64
Record
55%
556-450 (1006)
Invested
$94.7
Value
$122.31
PnL
+$27.61
Record
54%
3380-2917 (6297)
Invested
$59.53
Value
$61.88
PnL
+$2.35
Record
35%
704-1298 (2002)
Invested
$8.63
Value
$9.41
PnL
+$0.78
Record
37%
1392-2373 (3765)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.14
PnL
+$0.04
Record
46%
1568-1827 (3395)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.