Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on November 1?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 86¢ · $575 held · ends Nov 1

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$575.22

Combined PnL

-$21.16

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 86¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$515.94

Total Shares517

Combined PnL+$3.76

Yes4 traders

Total Value$59.28

Total Shares423

Combined PnL-$24.91

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 82.1¢	$438.4	$440.73	+$2.33	59% 1831-1285 (3116)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 72¢	$74.12	$75.21	+$1.42	20% 322-1323 (1645)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.6¢	$49.65	$32.22	-$17.42	50% 1843-1821 (3664)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.2¢	$26.94	$21.88	-$5.06	50% 650-644 (1294)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$7.2	$4.9	-$2.3	53% 6562-5775 (12337)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$5.06	$0.27	-$0.13	57% 13827-10598 (24425)

241532532432

Invested

$438.4

Value

$440.73

PnL

+$2.33

Record

59%

1831-1285 (3116)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$74.12

Value

$75.21

PnL

+$1.42

Record

20%

322-1323 (1645)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.65

Value

$32.22

PnL

-$17.42

Record

50%

1843-1821 (3664)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.94

Value

$21.88

PnL

-$5.06

Record

50%

650-644 (1294)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$2.3

Record

53%

6562-5775 (12337)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.06

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.13

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.