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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on November 1?

Resolved No. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Yes 67%

Total Value

$166.67

Combined PnL

-$60.79

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$166.67

Total Shares167

Combined PnL+$56.89

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares815

Combined PnL-$117.68

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 65.9¢	$109.78	$166.67	+$56.89	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 21.1¢	$66.71	—	-$98.5	50% 673-674 (1347)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$19.73	—	-$19.19	50% 1908-1873 (3781)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	—	—	+$0	61% 21345-13642 (34987)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	—	—	+$0	53% 6690-5888 (12578)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	—	—	+$0	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	—	—	+$0	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 76¢	—	—	+$0	18% 365-1641 (2006)

Invested

$109.78

Value

$166.67

PnL

+$56.89

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Invested

$66.71

Value

—

PnL

-$98.5

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$19.73

Value

—

PnL

-$19.19

Record

50%

1908-1873 (3781)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

21345-13642 (34987)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6690-5888 (12578)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

365-1641 (2006)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0e05ff79...734921

Slug

highest-temperature-in-chengdu-on-november-1-2026-22c

Traders in this Market

241532532432

No — $166.67

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes — $0

hello.67

Yes — $0

balthazar

No — $0

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

No — $0

ghorrock

No — $0

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes — $0

Istaroth

No — $0

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