Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 30?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 19¢ · $249 held · ends Oct 30

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$249.43

Combined PnL

$31.44

Smart Money Entry

18.2¢ → 19¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$81.66

Total Shares711

Combined PnL+$30.06

No1 trader

Total Value$17.33

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$1.38

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$117.29	$150.44	+$33.15	59% 1714-1182 (2896)
└ No leg	Noavg 82.5¢	$87.44	$85.81	-$1.62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.8¢	$29.86	$64.63	+$34.78
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$12	$57	+$45	18% 525-2347 (2872)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 28.6¢	$39.6	$24.66	-$14.94	56% 357-286 (643)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.3¢	$26.1	$17.33	+$1.38	57% 13427-10262 (23689)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$117.29

Value

$150.44

PnL

+$33.15

Record

59%

1714-1182 (2896)

Both legs:

No$87.4482.5¢-$1.62

Yes$29.868.8¢+$34.78

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$57

PnL

+$45

Record

18%

525-2347 (2872)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$39.6

Value

$24.66

PnL

-$14.94

Record

56%

357-286 (643)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.1

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$1.38

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.8%

19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$380.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

480.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.