Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 31?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 14¢ · $435 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 100%
$434.74
-$63.68
69.1¢ → 14¢
-80% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 68.9¢ | $374.34 | $395.26 | +$20.92 | 59% 1808-1259 (3067) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Noavg 69.1¢ | $92.11 | $33.88 | -$58.23 | 55% 410-334 (744) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $46.94 | $5.6 | -$26.36 | 20% 312-1280 (1592) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.