Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on November 8?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$195.41

Combined PnL

$36.74

Smart Money Entry

17.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$171.18

Total Shares771

Combined PnL+$35.12

No4 traders

Total Value$24.23

Total Shares37

Combined PnL+$1.63

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 21.2¢	$97.37	$169.58	+$72.21	39% 900-1436 (2336)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 64.5¢	$12.81	$9.69	+$0.11	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 65¢	$6.36	$6.7	+$0.34	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 41.4¢	$1.79	$4.13	+$2.34	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 61¢	$4.88	$3.72	-$1.16	35% 1022-1939 (2961)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$1.13	$1.19	+$0.06	56% 829-641 (1470)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 74.8¢	$7.61	$0.25	-$7.36	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$7	$0.1	-$6.9	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$10	$0.04	-$9.96	16% 4635-23687 (28322)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$6.08	$0	-$6.08	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$3.46	$0	-$3.45	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$3.4	$0	-$3.4	36% 1206-2165 (3371)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$97.37

Value

$169.58

PnL

+$72.21

Record

39%

900-1436 (2336)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$12.81

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$0.11

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.36

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$1.79

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$2.34

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$1.16

Record

35%

1022-1939 (2961)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.19

PnL

+$0.06

Record

56%

829-641 (1470)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.61

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$7.36

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$6.9

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$9.96

Record

16%

4635-23687 (28322)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.08

Value

PnL

-$6.08

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.46

Value

PnL

-$3.45

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

PnL

-$3.4

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.