Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on November 6?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 5.2¢ · $113 held · ends Nov 6

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$113.34

Combined PnL

-$3.15

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$108.09

Total Shares113

Combined PnL+$3.89

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.24

Total Shares128

Combined PnL-$7.04

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock	Noavg 95.7¢	$116.59	$98.65	-$0.28	58% 21213-15412 (36625)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$25.36	$5.61	+$4.31	52% 30872-28974 (59846)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$3.94	$3.84	-$0.14	42% 2328-3175 (5503)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.93	$2.4	-$2.44	38% 848-1395 (2243)
1D 1DVSBSTDCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$1.05	$1.6	+$0.11	97% 221-6 (227)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.9¢	$1.78	$0.8	-$0.98	19% 2872-12252 (15124)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$130.88	$0.44	-$3.73	72% 13809-5348 (19157)

ghorrock

Invested

$116.59

Value

$98.65

PnL

-$0.28

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$25.36

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$4.31

Record

52%

30872-28974 (59846)

123987456<$100

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.84

PnL

-$0.14

Record

42%

2328-3175 (5503)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$2.44

Record

38%

848-1395 (2243)

1DVSBSTDCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.11

Record

97%

221-6 (227)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.78

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.98

Record

19%

2872-12252 (15124)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$130.88

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$3.73

Record

72%

13809-5348 (19157)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.5%

5.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1440.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

1540.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.