Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on November 7?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 45¢ · $328 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$328.23
$28.76
45¢ → 44.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $252.56 | $291.9 | +$39.34 | 41% 838-1207 (2045) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $20.9 | $20.8 | -$0.1 | 53% 23528-20740 (44268) |
 Roflan-ludoman<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $9.4 | $10.4 | +$1 | 62% 658-398 (1056) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $4.84 | $4.34 | -$0.5 | 58% 21213-15412 (36625) |
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 48.5¢ | $212.5 | $0.78 | -$10.98 | 13% 529-3428 (3957) |
Invested
$252.56
Value
$291.9
PnL
+$39.34
Record
41%
838-1207 (2045)
Invested
$20.9
Value
$20.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
23528-20740 (44268)
Roflan-ludoman<$100Invested
$9.4
Value
$10.4
PnL
+$1
Record
62%
658-398 (1056)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$4.34
PnL
-$0.5
Record
58%
21213-15412 (36625)
IstarothCTRInvested
$212.5
Value
$0.78
PnL
-$10.98
Record
13%
529-3428 (3957)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.