Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on November 4?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $958 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$957.58

Combined PnL

$369.49

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 99.9¢

+32% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$957.13

Total Shares958

Combined PnL+$376.13

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.45

Total Shares453

Combined PnL-$6.64

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 64.4¢	$552.31	$408.51	+$304.51	44% 797-1006 (1803)
24 241532532432	Noavg 88.6¢	$265.9	$299.63	+$33.73	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
Istaroth	Noavg 67.7¢	$148.99	$154.42	+$38.06	14% 461-2750 (3211)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.8	$39.95	+$0.15	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.86	$19.95	+$0.09	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 79.4¢	$101.18	$12.83	-$0.35	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.11	$8.98	-$0.13	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99¢	$7.71	$7.77	+$0.06	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.07	$5.08	+$0.01	32% 2511-5383 (7894)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$13.45	$0.44	-$1.74	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$4.92	$0.02	-$4.91	54% 10027-8667 (18694)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$552.31

Value

$408.51

PnL

+$304.51

Record

44%

797-1006 (1803)

241532532432

Invested

$265.9

Value

$299.63

PnL

+$33.73

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Istaroth

Invested

$148.99

Value

$154.42

PnL

+$38.06

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$39.8

Value

$39.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$19.95

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

ghorrock

Invested

$101.18

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.11

Value

$8.98

PnL

-$0.13

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.71

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$0.06

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.01

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.45

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$1.74

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.92

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.91

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.