Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on November 2?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 22¢ · $456 held · ends Nov 2

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$456.21

Combined PnL

$146

Smart Money Entry

24.2¢ → 22¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$375.53

Total Shares1,644

Combined PnL+$146.67

No1 trader

Total Value$80.67

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$0.68

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 23.9¢	$146.25	$311.62	+$165.37	50% 673-674 (1347)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$87.87	$80.67	-$0.68	18% 365-1641 (2006)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.8¢	$83.86	$61.59	-$19.26	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.76	$2.32	+$0.56	50% 1908-1873 (3781)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$146.25

Value

$311.62

PnL

+$165.37

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$87.87

Value

$80.67

PnL

-$0.68

Record

18%

365-1641 (2006)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.86

Value

$61.59

PnL

-$19.26

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$0.56

Record

50%

1908-1873 (3781)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.