Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on November 6?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 90¢ · $82 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$82.28
-$10.12
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-32 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $18.99 | $19.2 | -$0.46 | 97% 248-7 (255) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $18.53 | $18.35 | -$0.18 | 53% 23655-20823 (44478) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $14.43 | $14.4 | +$0.23 | 42% 2349-3204 (5553) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $23 | $13.71 | -$9.29 | 38% 857-1404 (2261) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $14.45 | $11.56 | +$0.15 | 28% 2837-7293 (10130) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $30.83 | $5.06 | -$0.57 | 58% 21279-15443 (36722) |
Invested
$18.99
Value
$19.2
PnL
-$0.46
Record
97%
248-7 (255)
Invested
$18.53
Value
$18.35
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
23655-20823 (44478)
Invested
$14.43
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$0.23
Record
42%
2349-3204 (5553)
Invested
$23
Value
$13.71
PnL
-$9.29
Record
38%
857-1404 (2261)
Invested
$14.45
Value
$11.56
PnL
+$0.15
Record
28%
2837-7293 (10130)
Invested
$30.83
Value
$5.06
PnL
-$0.57
Record
58%
21279-15443 (36722)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.