Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $340 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$339.93
-$44.59
65.3¢ → 96.8¢
+48% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Mature
36h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 62¢ | $295.96 | $280.03 | -$22.23 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $56.04 | $36.42 | -$3.55 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.8¢ | $14.46 | $13.14 | -$11.15 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $7.09 | $7.09 | +$0 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $11.61 | $3.25 | -$7.66 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
Invested
$295.96
Value
$280.03
PnL
-$22.23
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Invested
$56.04
Value
$36.42
PnL
-$3.55
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$14.46
Value
$13.14
PnL
-$11.15
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
Invested
$7.09
Value
$7.09
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$11.61
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$7.66
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.